Fitch Solutions, a financial intelligence service provider, has predicted that the naira would slide to as low as N1,993 per dollar in exchange rate by 2028, severely impacting Nigeria’s pharmaceutical industry to import medical devices.
In a new report, the company’s subsidiary, BMI Research, said despite an expected rebound in the economy, Nigeria’s medical devices market will continue to face operational and demand headwinds over the near term.
“Nigeria’s medical device market will grow at a 2023-2028 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.8% in local currency terms and 9.6% in US dollar terms, taking market value to NGN171.1bn (USD344.7mn) by 2028,” the report said.
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According to Fitch’s subsidiary, several challenges remain for local manufacturing of medical devices to take off in Nigeria, despite government incentives.
“Similar to other markets in sub-Sahara Africa, Nigeria heavily relies on medical device imports, with reliance on over 95%. We expect that the naira will end 2028 at NGN1993/USD from NGN306/USD in 2018.
“As the naira weakens, the cost of importing medical devices will continually increase, eroding both the health system and patient purchasing power especially to invest in essential medical technologies given underfunding of the public health sector.
“This would particularly affect high-cost demand for devices such as diagnostics, orthopaedics and dental products.
“On the export front, a weaker naira will enhance the competitiveness of locally manufactured medical devices, fostering growth in the sector.
